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Which investment channel is bright for 2019?

Monday - 07/01/2019 18:18
While the financial market is forecasted to be difficult, real estate market has many unknowns, sending savings becomes an attractive profit channel.
Stock is forecast to be a challenging investment channel in 2019. Photo: AP.
Stock is forecast to be a challenging investment channel in 2019. Photo: AP.
With unpredictable developments in the financial market in 2018, financial experts believe that the selection of attractive investment channels in 2019 is more challenging.

Stock

This is an investment channel according to many experts, not much attractive in the coming year, especially after Vietnam's securities have passed a year of 2018 ups and downs. VN-Index surpassed the historical peak and set a record level of 1,211 points on April 10, 2018. However, in just 8 months, Vietnamese stocks fell sharply and became the 9th deepest market in the world. Ending the last trading session in 2018, VN-Index stopped at the level of more than 892 points, down 91.7 points (equivalent to 9.32%) compared to the end of 2017. The scenarios for the next year, most of them are inclined to The plan is somewhat more cautious and suggests that the VN-Index may trade between 900 and 1,000 points.

Vietcombank Securities Company (VCBS) also forecasts that the main indexes of Vietnam's stock market will fluctuate in a high range of about 300-350 points with assumptions related to fluctuations in the international financial market. .

"With many unpredictable factors caused by geopolitical tensions and trade, most analysts agree that the global economy is entering the end of the growth cycle and 2019 may be one relatively difficult year for the stock market ", an analysis report of Viet Rong Securities Company (VDSC) evaluated and said that in that context, it is difficult for Vietnam to go against the trend.

Saving

While the investment channels are highly profitable in the years before securities and real estate tend to slow down, savings are becoming an attractive investment channel, especially in the context of the current deposit rates. momentum up.

According to Ngo Dang Khoa - Country Director of the Foreign Exchange and Capital Market Division at HSBC Vietnam, the Fed's forecast to continue raising interest rates next year puts pressure on interest rate increase with Vietnam in the context. The SBV tried to maintain the USD-VND interest rate gap at a reasonable level to avoid pressure on the exchange rate.

Before Thailand's development, the basic interest rate was raised in the last days of 2018, Mr. Tran Le Minh, Deputy General Director of Vietnam Investment Fund Management Joint Stock Company (VietFund Management) expected that the State Bank will have Similar moves in early 2019 as a message to the market about more flexible operating policies.

The deposit interest rate in the market started to run from September 2018 with the interest rate of banks continuously adjusted until the end of the year. The highest mobilization in the market belongs to the private banking group with interest rates that can reach over 8.5% with special mobilization programs. Meanwhile, the interest rates of banks are popular from 7.5% to nearly 8%.

U.S. dollar

The greenback has had a year of continuous price increases compared to other currencies due to the interest rate increase of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and the US economy is on track to return. This movement put pressure on the dong as the exchange rate on the banking market increased by more than 2% in 2018, while the exchange rate on the free market increased by nearly 3.4%.

However, in terms of orientation, the average interest rate provision offered by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) in the coming time was 25 percentage points lower for 2019, 2020 and 2021. This means Fed lowered the forecast of interest rate increase from 3 times to 2 times in 2019 - showing the change in a more moderate direction.

The pressure on the dong will remain, not only from the strong dollar but also the depreciation of higher and higher prices from other currencies. However, lowering the Fed rate hike forecast in 2019 also partly eased the pressure in the short term.

In the recent report, Bao Viet Securities Company (BVSC) also said that it is unlikely that the VND scenario will have a strong depreciation in 2019. According to BVSC, the forecast of the overall balance of payments will continue to be in surplus. The balance of 2019 thanks to the growth of export, Vietnam attracted a lot of FDI and stable remittance flow is a basis that shows that the risk of VND devaluation over 5% is not large. The analyst team forecasts that the dong will depreciate below 3% in 2019.

Gold

Contrary to fluctuations in other investment channels, gold had a relatively "2018" year. This investment channel is also expected to maintain this status next year when the similarity between the domestic gold market and the world gold has been thoroughly reduced after the move to block the "golden" status of the economy. The economy of the State Bank 5 years ago.

The lack of connectivity is also reflected in the gold price in 2018 when the world gold price fluctuated strongly due to geopolitical fluctuations with a margin of about 200 USD per ounce, but the domestic gold price was almost unchanged throughout the year. just past.

Real estate

Ho Chi Minh City Real Estate Association (HoREA) has just released a report highlighting many concerns for the Saigon real estate market next year, one of which is the possibility that virtual land prices may return to attack the market. .

In 2017 and 2018 there have been many virtual fever land prices, agricultural land prices. Especially in 2018, there were at least 2 waves of land fever in HCMC. One of the main reasons is that the middlemen and the stork have in some cases been connected with some grassroots officials to divide the land plots.

According to HoREA, these people provide inadequate and inaccurate information on urban development planning, development of transport infrastructure systems, new urban area projects ... on vehicles. information, communication, especially social networks and electronic information sites (especially taking advantage of specialized pages, self-introduction pages, specialized advertising pages) to make prices, blow land prices, stimulate psychology crowd, creating waves on the real estate market to profit.

The land fever is expected to bring the real estate investment picture back to many colors, similar to 2018, with unpredictable developments. Behind that may be huge profits, but if you are not alert, investors can also lose money, it is difficult to recover capital because land prices after regressions often fall into liquidity.

Author: Translated by CoPhieuViet.Com

Source: Vnexpress newspaper

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